EDITOR’S NOTE: This analysis is the very first for college student Ashtyn Lucas here on The Football Beat.
By ASHTYN LUCAS
How closely will the College Football Playoff poll – the official one, by the CFP committee this coming Tuesday night – resemble the Associated Press and AFCA Coaches polls that came out Sunday?
No one knows for certain, although our bet here at The Football Beat is that this penultimate version of the CFP poll looks an awful lot like the other two.
Ohio State won’t be No. 2, we know that, after a lackluster, walking-through-the-motions home loss to rival Michigan on Saturday. And Miami, with a three-touchdown lead over Syracuse, is likely to also drop a-ways. Clemson? They’ll fall a bit, but the Tigers’ loss to in-state rival South Carolina was back-and-forth, doesn’t look nearly as bad, and South Carolina is actually respected enough by the committee that the Gamecocks were 15th last week.
The AP poll and coaches poll we submit here only really serve for good watercooler talk until Tuesday. But we’re guessing Tuesday’s CFP rankings will look something really similar.
Just for fun, if TFB had a vote, here’s what our own top 14 would look like:
1, unbeaten Oregon. Not disputed.
Texas, who went on the road to one of the most hostile environments in college football, archrival Texas A&M, and got out with a fairly convincing win, checks in at No. 2.
We’ll concede that Penn State, which was No. 4 a week ago, will just move on up to third, although – and we know this won’t be a popular opinion in the Northeast – we believe the Nittany Lions have played an absolutely horrid schedule and that the one game that is impressive – Ohio State – was a loss. Still, this is our prediction of where we THINK the committee will go, not where we WANT them to go. Penn State at No. 3.
Similar thing with Notre Dame. They did beat Texas A&M in College Station to open the season, and an unbeaten Army team. Plus – they’re Notre Dame. Who are we kidding? The committee will slide them up to fourth, similar to Penn State going to third.
IN OUR OPINION, Georgia, though shaky in an eight-overtime win over Georgia Tech, did escape, and is in the SEC Championship Game, now knowing that its opponent will be Texas. Georgia checks in at No. 5. Tennessee came back from trailing early in Vanderbilt and probably shouldn’t be ranked nearly as high as this, but because of the two top-12 losses, we’ll predict the committee has the Vols at 6 once again.
SMU is convincingly defeating everyone in its way, and now has a 10-1 record. They’re in the ACC Championship Game (that still sounds odd) and we’ll predict the committee moves them up a spot to seventh.
This committee seems to really like Ohio State, so after the Buckeyes’ second loss of the season, at home against Michigan on Saturday, how far they fall will be interesting. We’re going to say their slide stops at No. 8, where they’ll be Tuesday in the CWP poll.
Yet another Big Ten team, Indiana, pasted Purdue on Saturday, and the Hoosiers are 11-1 on the year. We at TFB hate their schedule, but we’ll say the committee leaves them at No. 9.
Rounding out our top 14: Boise State at No. 10; Alabama at No. 11; Miami at No. 12; Arizona State at No. 13; and Ole Miss at No. 14.
Boise is getting in, unless it loses the Mountain West Conference title game. Miami is no longer playing in the ACC title game and may get in – it will depend on if they value having no more than two losses over an Alabama program that has two bad losses (at Vanderbilt, at Oklahoma) but has four to five very good wins (Georgia, South Carolina, LSU and Missouri, not to mention a win over a solid Wisconsin program).
Arizona State guarantees itself a spot in the CFP with a Big 12 Championship game over Iowa State on Saturday in Arlington.
And Ole Miss? It may be tough for the Rebels to get in, without a few upsets. Ditto for Alabama.
We’ll all find out on Tuesday what the committee is thinking prior to the weekend’s upcoming championship games.
