Here – and we’re all excited about it – is the very first edition of thefootballbeat.com’s 2023 NFL Picks.
Trying to prognosticate this year are associate editor Clayton Fletcher, correspondents Mitchell and Shelby Molandes and Jenna Hagler Lucas, two of our photographers – Jacob Lucas and Alex Nabor – and myself. And one of us (hand raised) has 30 years of experience in this field. Let’s be honest: sometimes it’s a crap shoot. There’s just so many unknowns to start each season.
For updated lines, go here: 2023 NFL Week 1 games: Betting odds, lines, picks, spreads, more – ESPN
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, noon, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium): The obvious question here is about someone who has never thrown a pass in the NFL, but will on Sunday: Carolina quarterback Bryce Young, the number one overall pick in April’s draft who was named the starter by Panthers coach Frank Reich in late July, after his first practice of training camp.
Young, the Heisman Trophy-winner in the 2021 season from Alabama, was unbelievable for coach Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, and he’ll have some weapons to work with this season.
He’s not exactly facing a juggernaut to start the year, at least not in the 2022 season. The Falcons were 24th in overall defense last year. They did add a couple of key pieces in defensive lineman Calais Campbell and safety Jessie Bates.
Falcons coach Arthur Smith maybe didn’t like his quarterback room, and the franchise signed former Washington signal-caller Taylor Heinicke. But Desmond Ridder, the former University of Cincinnati standout who helped that program get to the College Football Playoff three seasons ago, is the starter.
Oh, yeah, and they also have some guy named Bijan Robinson, the human Swiss Army Knife. Robinson, a running back drafted out of Texas in April, has given Falcons fans reason to hope. Robinson rushed for 3,410 yards and 33 touchdowns in 31 games played over three years for the Longhorns, and also had 60 catches for 805 yards and eight more TDs.
THE PICK: It’s 6-1. Everyone likes Carolina in a mild upset, except Jenna, who picked the Falcons.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, noon, FirstEnergy Stadium): Every time I think about the rivalry between these teams, which I’m hoping will be reinvigorated with both teams having actual NFL-caliber quarterbacks, I can’t help but think about the late, great Cincinnati coach Sam Wyche, who did his part to make things interesting.
This, footage from a Cincinnati home game against Cleveland in 1989, with Wyche trying to calm fans after a bottle-throwing incident: Sam Wyche “You don’t live in Cleveland” speech – YouTube.
THE PICK: Wow, QB Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals across the board; not a single pick for the Browns, even playing a home game.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, noon, Lucas Oil Stadium): Did we see the birth of a legit Super Bowl contender late last season in Jacksonville?
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence finally looked like the number one pick in the draft from 2021, threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, just eight interceptions, and completed 66 percent of his passes. He was also sacked 27 times in 17 regular season games.
The biggest difference between last year and his rookie season: nine less interceptions, for one, and he was sacked less in ’22, as well, five less times.
Indianapolis fans are eagerly awaiting the debut of rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, drafted fourth overall out of the University of Florida this April.
Coach Shane Steichen, in his first season heading up the Colts, named Richardson the starter. And Richardson has taken the bull by the horns.
Richardson was asked how he was preparing for Jacksonville just before a practice this week, in this story on SI.com by Andrew Moore (Indianapolis Colts’ Anthony Richardson Reveals Mindset for Debut vs. Jaguars – Sports Illustrated ).
“Don’t overthink it,” was his answer. “Football is football. Trust my trainer, trust my information, trust my teammates, trust the coaches and just go out there and play. Don’t overthink it and just play football.”
THE PICK: Our staff is apparently a big believer in Trevor Lawrence and new Jags’ receiver Calvin Ridley, among others. Unanimous 7-0 picks for the Jaguars.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, noon, U.S. Bank Stadium): After being somewhat rejuvenated after a short stay in Los Angeles with the Rams, quarterback Baker Mayfield is back, and is the starter for the Bucs as they face their old division rivals.
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins lost Adam Theilen in the offseason; he’s now with the Carolina Panthers. And running back Dalvin Cook, oft-injured, has taken his 5,993 yards and 47 career touchdowns with him to the New York Jets.
But Cousins does have Justin Jefferson, the wide receiver Yahoo! Suggested I take with the second overall pick in my fantasy draft (he was gone with pick one), and the man The Sporting News told everyone he would be No. 1 in their draft (Who should I pick No. 1 overall in my fantasy football draft? Why Justin Jefferson is the easy answer | Sporting News).
Can the Vikings continue their upward progression on defense? They were seventh against the pass last season, but 28th against the run.
THE PICK: Jenna’s gone rogue again. Six of us have picked Minnesota to win this game; she’s picked Tampa.
Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, noon, Caesar’s Superdome): The Titans’ Super Bowl window not only feels shut – it kind of feels shattered. Sorry, Titans fans, and I know that’s an awful way to start our relationship. I actually love coach Matt Vrabel, love Derrick Henry, and there’s pieces of the defense I like.
But I don’t know what they’re doing at quarterback. One minute, they’re completely, 100 percent “hey-we’re-all-about-Ryan-Tannehill.” The next, they’re not only drafting Malik Willis, they’re drafting Will Levis, too.
For the Saints, it’s still Life After Brees. But they did acquire Derek Carr, who most reporters agree is one of the true nice guys in the league that people in the business root for to do well (probably because he’s accessible and kind, and gives the media what they want when we ask – honestly, there’s nothing wrong with that).
Carr threw for 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in a bit of a shortened season last year (the Raiders wouldn’t play him the final two games).
THE PICK: Let’s see which people believe in the Saints for this game – well, that would be myself, Clayton and Jenna, while the young people all went 4-0 for the Titans. It’s the first real split of the picks list. So the pick is technically 4-3, in favor of Tennessee.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (Sunday, noon, Acrisure Stadium): We all know by now that the Great Bosa Holdout has ended, and 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa is now the highest-paid defensive player in the history of the National Football League.
It’s well-documented now, but Bosa, who had 18.5 sacks last season, didn’t attend training camp and was a holdout technically until he got off the plane just after signing his deal. The big question now: will he play against the Steelers on Sunday in the season opener?
Here’s what Kyle Shanahan told nbcsportsbayarea.com about that premise.
“There is a question because we haven’t seen him, but I think you guys know how I’m talking,” Shanahan said Wednesday. “He’d have to have a beer belly or be out of shape or something. That’s not in Bosa’s DNA.”
The rest of the story is here (Kyle Shanahan offers hilarious scenario where Nick Bosa won’t play Week 1 – NBC Sports Bay Area & California), but we’ll take that as a yes.
THE PICK: It’s 6-1 again, and this time, I’m the holdout. Everyone has picked San Francisco to win this game except me (Mitch Lucas). I just have to see 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy take a few hits before I’m convinced he’s ready for the season. If this game were on the west coast, I might have made the opposite pick.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Commanders (Sunday, noon, FedEd Field): I’m almost tempted here to just say “next,” and tell the pick. We won’t do that. But we’ll be close.
Arizona has a new head coach, has had multiple changes, and is without quarterback Kyler Murray, and likely well into the season, from injuries suffered late last year.
Washington has new ownership, and quarterback Taylor Heinicke is now in Atlanta. Ron Rivera is still the Commanders’ coach, though, and he believes in new QB Sam Howell. Running back Brian Robinson has been nothing short of an inspiration after coming back from being attacked and shot during an attempted mugging. Robinson ran for 797 yards on 205 carries in 12 games a season ago. He only scored twice, but he fumbled just twice on those 205 carries, and didn’t lose either fumble to the opponent.
THE PICK: Unanimously, Washington (7-0).
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, noon, M&T Bank Stadium): How long do you think that Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has waited to tell all the naysayers “shut up” during his own little financial skirmish with the Ravens in the last year?
He can do a lot with his play, starting Sunday at home against the Texans.
It’s only, say, a few feet-wide of a line between “dysfunctional” and “respected.” And somewhere in the offseason, the Texans at least approached that line, moving toward the “respected” side, probably when they hired new coach Demeco Ryans from his defensive coordinator’s position in San Francisco. And the Texans were nothing short of masterful – at least appearance-wise – in the draft, getting C.J. Stroud second, then trading right back up and drafting all-world collegiate linebacker Will Anderson third.
The Ravens might be too much, too soon, though.
THE PICK: Just as you might have figured, another unanimous, 7-0 in favor of Baltimore.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 3:25 p.m., Soldier Field): Our first virtual pick-em of the weekend, this game figures to be close.
When was the last time you might have said that about a Packers-Bears game, largely due to former Packers QB Aaron Rodgers?
Rodgers is off to the Big Apple, though (more later), for the New York Jets, and Jordan Love, master of the clipboard, is now the starter in Green Bay. Love doesn’t have many more starts in the NFL than I do.
Led by a young quarterback themselves in Justin Fields (2,242 yards, 17 touchdowns, 11 interceptions passing a year ago; 1,143 yards, 8 touchdowns rushing), this may be the Bears’ best chance to turn the tide in this rivalry.
The Bears haven’t won a game in the series since 2018: Green Bay has won eight straight games.
THE PICK: It’s Jenna again. Seriously. The rest of us have picked Chicago to come out on top. Jenna picked the Packers. 6-1 on this one.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 3:25 p.m., at Empower Field at Mile High): The Sean Payton Coaching Era officially begins in Denver on Sunday.
How long, everyone is asking, before Payton benches quarterback Russell Wilson for… well, for whomever it is that backs up Wilson.
Just kidding.
From the not-kidding department, though, Wilson had far from the best season of his career a year ago, and it helped cost one-year coach Nathaniel Hackett his job.
There’s a lot new about the Raiders, too, specifically at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo, who really was injured often but underappreciated during his time at San Francisco, takes the reins from Derek Carr, who departed for the Saints, as we discussed earlier.
Garoppolo is a proven winner: 39-15 with the 49ers, multiple NFC Championship Game appearances, one victory, and a Super Bowl appearance (and subsequent loss to the Chiefs).
THE PICK: This one is split. Jenna and I both like Denver, while the rest of the field likes the Raiders, a 5-2 split.
Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (Sunday, 3:25 p.m., Gillette Stadium): The losing team from the previous season’s Super Bowl normally doesn’t have the best luck. Still, everyone seems very high on Philadelphia, including their new toy, running back D’Andre Swift, acquired in a trade with Detroit.
Am I the only one, though, not buying all this crap about Patriots coach Bill Belichick losing his touch?
I know the Patriots haven’t been all that good (putting it mildly) since Tom Brady departed for Tampa, and I know Belichick has made some questionable moves. But he has renewed his commitment to Mac Jones as the team’s starter (Bill Belichick gives biggest endorsement of QB Mac Jones as a starter (usatoday.com) and coaching changes have been made, with Bill O’Brien returning to the league after serving as the offensive coordinator at Alabama. O’Brien will be the Patriots’ OC, and reuniting with former Alabama star Jones.
That said…
THE PICK: Wow. Everybody but me has picked Philly. I’m taking the Pats.
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 3:25 p.m., SoFi Stadium): SO much (not a typo; meant to capitalize “so”) of the Dolphins’ season is predicated on the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If Tua’s health doesn’t hold up, that sinks the Dolphins, realistically. They’re still a possible playoff team, but realistically, a Super Bowl contender without Tua? No.
And Justin Herbert is on the other side. Han Solo, Mr. Cool, Mr. Gut-It-Out (see how he performed with the rib injury in recent memory). Going to the pick quickly here.
THE PICK: Fletch, Jenna, Alex and myself all like the Chargers; Jacob, Mitchell and Shelby have all taken the Dolphins here. So 4-3, Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 3:25 p.m., Lumen Field): The Rams had owned the Seahawks recently until the last two games. The Seahawks got it done last year under the guidance of coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, dealing the Rams a pair of losses, one of them in overtime in the final week of the regular season.
That figures, linebacker Bobby Wagner would say. Wagner and the Seahawks parted ways and he spent a year with the Rams, but never beat his former team.
Wagner took his 446 career tackles and has gone back to Seattle, and the Rams look to be in a bit of a rebuilding mode after “F them Picks” was their slogan just two seasons ago.
THE PICK: Another 4-3 split. Fletch, Shelby and Mitchell all like the Rams, while the rest of us are on the Seahawks.
Dallas Cowboys at the New York Giants (Sunday, 7:20 p.m., MetLife Stadium): While most people, for some reason, are focusing on the Cowboys trading a fourth-round pick to San Francisco for quarterback Trey Lance, I’m focused on the Giants being able to keep QB Daniel Jones and running back Saquan Barkley.
THE PICK: Another 6-1. I’m the only one who picked the Giants.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Monday, 7:15 p.m., MetLife Stadium):4,283 passing yards, 35 touchdowns to 14 picks, and 762 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. Those are Josh Allen’s numbers from a year ago.
But in not nearly as many games as Allen would’ve liked, as the Bills Super Bowl-or-bust bandwagon broke down in 2022, in part due to the injury suffered by a big offseason acquisition a year ago, pass rusher Von Miller.
The team recently put Miller on the physically-unable-to-perform (PUP) list, meaning he’ll miss the first four games.
If Allen and his teammates can navigate their schedule until then (at the Jets week one, at home against the Raiders in week two, at Washington in week three and then hosting the Miami Dolphins in week four), Miller could potentially return for a big game against Jacksonville on Oct. 8.
For now, though, let’s meet Aaron Rodgers in a different shade of green.
THE PICK: Fletch, Jacob, Alex and Shelby all like the Bills; the other three of us picked the Jets, a 4-3 split.
