This weekend’s college football games should help us begin to figure out – to weed out, if you will – some of the pretenders from the contenders.
It won’t be complete: there will still be a few hanging around. But we will get some clarity in the Southeastern Conference, especially, and we’ll get a clear front-runner in the Big 12 Conference, with the annual Texas-Oklahoma game in Dallas.
No. 1 Georgia finally gets to face someone with some credibility: an undefeated Kentucky. The Cotton Bowl will be rockin,’ as both No. 3 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma are a combined 10-0, and meet there Saturday morning. No. 11 Alabama and Texas A&M will do battle in College Station, the winner laying claim to the REAL front-runner in the SEC West. In the ACC, North Carolina, Miami and Louisville all try to remain unbeaten, and Louisville has to face No. 10 Notre Dame – a program with 30 consecutive wins over ACC programs.
In short, it’s another big Saturday in college football.
We have had some games already, though, on Wednesday and Thursday, and at this writing Friday afternoon, there are a couple Friday night.
On Wednesday (that sounds so odd), Jacksonville State came from 23-7 behind to beat Middle Tennessee, 45-30, and Florida International lost at New Mexico State, 34-17.
On Thursday, Liberty beat Sam Houston State, 21-16, and Western Kentucky outlasted Louisiana Tech, 35-28.
Friday night, Kansas State fell to Oklahoma State in Stillwater, 29-21, and Nebraska, under first-year coach Matt Rhule, got a Big 10 win in Illinois, 20-7.
Here’s the Saturday schedule, with thefootballbeat.com staff picks afterward.
No. 12 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Texas (at the Cotton Bowl), 11 a.m., ABC
Maryland at No. 4 Ohio State, 11 a.m., FOX
No. 23 LSU at No. 21 Missouri, 11 a.m., ESPN
Boston College at Army, 11 a.m., CBS Sports Network
Western Michigan at Mississippi State, 11 a.m., SEC Network
Rutgers at Wisconsin,11 a.m., Peacock
William & Mary at Virginia, 11 a.m., ACC Network
Toledo at UMass, 11 a.m., ESPNU
Marshall at North Carolina State, 1 p.m., CW Network
Texas-San Antonio at Temple, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Central Michigan at Buffalo, 1 p.m., ESPN+
No. 13 Washington State at UCLA, 2 p.m., PAC-12 Network
Howard at Northwestern, 2 p.m., Big 10 Network
Virginia Tech at No. 5 Florida State, 2:30 p.m., ABC
No. 11 Alabama at Texas A&M, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Syracuse at No. 14 North Carolina, 2:30 p.m., ESPN
Purdue at Iowa, 2:30 p.m., Peacock
Wake Forest at Clemson, 2:30 p.m., ACC Network
North Texas at Navy, 2:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Texas State at Louisiana, 2:30 p.m., ESPNU
Ball State at Eastern Michigan, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+
Bowling Green at Miami (Ohio), 2:30 p.m., ESPN+
Kent State at Ohio, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Akron, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+
Vanderbilt at Florida, 3 p.m., SEC Network
Central Florida at Kansas, 3 p.m., FOX
South Florida at Alabama-Birmingham, 3 p.m., ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy, 3 p.m., ESPN+
UConn at Rice, 4 p.m., ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic, 5 p.m., ESPN+
Colorado at Arizona State, 5:30 p.m., PAC-12
No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia, 6 p.m., ESPN
South Alabama at Louisiana Monroe, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Old Dominion at Southern Miss, 6 p.m., ESPN+
No. 2 Michigan at Minnesota, 6:30 p.m., NBC and Peacock
Arkansas at No. 16 Ole Miss, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 25 Louisville, 6:37 p.m., ABC
Georgia Tech at No. 17 Miami, 7 p.m., ACC Network
No. 24 Fresno State at Wyoming, 7 p.m., FOX
Texas Tech at Baylor, 7 p.m., ESPN2
TCU at Iowa State, 7 p.m., Fox Sports 2 (FS2)
Colorado State at Utah State, 7 p.m.
San Jose State at Boise State, 7 p.m., CBS Sports Network
No. 15 Oregon State at Cal, 9 p.m., PAC-12 Network
Arizona at No. 9 Southern Cal, 9:30 p.m., ESPN
Staff picks
We’re hitting our stride with the college picks, it seems – everyone who’s actually a part of the picks process every week is doing their research, putting personal rivalries of our own aside and doing the best they can to pick a WINNER, not who you want to win, like many talking heads do on television.
If you’ve never hung out here, never checked this out, we’ve got seven staffers (including myself) that are picking 15 college games each week, and we’re joined by my daughter, Ashtyn, a college student with a love for football who’s pretty darn good at picking the outcomes of games.
In fact, Shelby Thompson Molandes, one of our correspondents, is leading the way in the college picks with a 48-12 record, and Ashtyn is second (47-13). Mitchell Molandes is third (46-14), and my wife, Jenna Hagler Lucas, and photographer Alex Nabor, are tied for fourth (44-16). I’m right behind them (43-17) after I got off to a bad start in week one. Jacob Lucas, our videographer, is 40-20, and assistant editor Clayton Fletcher is in the back right now (39-21), mainly because he can’t resist picking an upset.
To be fair, he’s almost hit on a couple: South Carolina gave No. 1 Georgia all it wanted for a half, and Auburn almost bit the ‘Dawgs last week. Fletch maintains that Georgia is not as good as it has been in the last three to four years, and right now, I’m inclined to agree. That doesn’t mean I’m taking Kentucky to win in Athens – and you’ll notice Fletch doesn’t do that either, this week.
On to the picks.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State: Even though I actually saw with my very own eyes Oklahoma State lose to South Alabama, I still believe coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys are a program that will rise to the occasion three to four times a year and play elite football. But apparently, I’m the only one. This one is a 7-1 split, with me taking OSU, and everyone freakin’ else taking K-State.
Oklahoma vs. Texas: I was curious about how everyone would see this one. I honestly thought about taking OU, with the improvement of quarterback Dillon Gabriel (completing 75 percent of his passes, 1,593 yards, 15 touchdowns, 2 interceptions), his offensive line (he’s been sacked just four times in five games), and especially the Sooners’ defense being a ton better than last year (allowing only 319 yards and just over 10 points a game). But my eyes tell me that coach Steve Sarkisian has Texas rolling. I’m not saying the Longhorns go unbeaten. But I don’t know that they’re gonna “get got” unless it’s in the College Football Playoffs. IF they do, and that’s a big IF, then it’ll be OU. Right now, I’m taking UT, and six of us did, a 6-2 split in UT’s favor, with Mitchell and Jacob both taking OU to pull the mild upset.
Maryland at Ohio State: Nobody believes Maryland is strong enough to get this one on the road; we went unanimous for Ohio State.
LSU at Missouri: I guess Fletch, Jenna and Alex can’t get LSU allowing 711 yards and 55 points to Ole Miss out of their minds. I agree, to a degree – but Lane Kiffin’s offense normally makes opponents look bad. And they did last week. Missouri: they ain’t Ole Miss. I know Mizzou is undefeated (5-0), but LSU still has the superior athletes. We’ll see if changes made this week on defense make the difference. The three of them took Missouri, and the rest of us took LSU, a 5-3 split in LSU’s favor.
Washington State at UCLA: This one sort of surprises me: a unanimous pick, 8-0, in favor of WSU. The Cougars are flying under the radar right now. They’ll continue to do that (if they’re winning) until Oct. 21, and then we’ll know something. That’s the date they play at Oregon.
Alabama at Texas A&M: Every year, I look at Alabama’s schedule, like I do a lot of teams, and say, “Well, this is a trouble spot,” meaning a likely loss. This year, I picked the Ole Miss game and the Texas A&M games as those trouble spots for ‘Bama. I didn’t foresee the Longhorns being as strong as they are, and winning in Tuscaloosa. And Ole Miss folded in the fourth quarter like a cheap lawn chair, but the Tide had something to do with them folding. Alabama still has the talent to be elite, and get to the playoff. They can take a huge step here by dealing the Aggies a loss. But I expect this to come down to the very end. I’ve picked Alabama, and it’s a 5-3 split in their favor. But I won’t be shocked if A&M gets this done. Kyle Field is one of the most difficult places to play in college football.
Kentucky at Georgia: I would imagine coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs – who have been slow starters in every single game they’ve played this year – will try to stop Wildcats running back Ray Davis and force Kentucky’s passing game to beat them. Davis, after all, had three touchdowns and 280 yards – an average of almost 11 yards a carry – against Florida last week. He has 594 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Shane Hamm, the Wildcats’ quarterback, is completing just 56 percent of his throws, for 701 yards, six touchdowns and four picks. Kentucky’s defense will have to help them greatly, and a fast start couldn’t hurt. That said, we went unanimous, 8-0, in Georgia’s favor.
Michigan at Minnesota: Michigan across the board (8-0), although I do see this being a bit harder than one of their home wipeouts for which they’re so noted.
Notre Dame at Louisville: The Irish face another tough road test, and Louisville is undefeated. I actually think Notre Dame has been teeter-tottering on losing all year, except early against Navy. I think they’re due, and they don’t escape this week. I like Louisville, straight-up, to win this game. Alex agrees with me, and everyone else is on the Irish, a 6-2 pick in ND’s favor.
Arkansas at Ole Miss: Coach Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks have a moral victory-type loss at LSU on the books already this year, and I think they’ll play valiantly in Oxford. But the Rebels know, with a win over LSU, that they’re in the driver’s seat if Alabama drops a game tomorrow and then one other. Alabama owns the tiebreaker over the Rebels, and faces Arkansas next week. Most of the Crimson Tide’s hard games are in front of them, beginning today, and Ole Miss needs to win and they need the Tide to lose. Our pick for this one was unanimous, in Ole Miss’s favor.
Fresno State at Wyoming: An exact even split, with Fletch, Jenna, Ashtyn and myself taking the Cowboys, and Mitchell, Jacob, Shelby and Alex taking Fresno, a 4-4 split.
TCU at Iowa State: I look up and I’m the only one who took Iowa State in the upset. I guess everyone is FORGETTING THAT THE HORNED FROGS LOST TO COLORADO AND WEST VIRGINIA ALREADY. Sorry, I get fired up at times. The pick is 7-1 in favor of TCU.
Texas Tech at Baylor: After Baylor’s 28-point comeback last weekend at Central Florida, I’m sure as heck not picking against them at home. Fletch was the only one who took Tech; the split was 7-1 among our pickers, with Baylor getting the favorite nod.
Oregon State at Cal: Oregon State is raising some eyebrows in a surprisingly-strong Pac-12. By all rights, they should win this game and move on to face more of the conference’s big dogs, like USC and Oregon. The Beavers can’t let this be a trap game. None of the panel bought into it. The pick is an 8-0 decision in OSU’s favor.
Arizona at Southern Cal: I definitely do not believe in USC in the long run. Their defense is WAY too shaky. But I’ll keep picking them until I believe they face someone that can stop quarterback Caleb Williams (105-of-141, 74 percent completion rate, 1,603 yards, 21 touchdowns, 1 interception). And that ain’t this week.
The pick: unanimous, in favor of the Trojans.
