This is it: it’s one of the biggest weekends of the season for college football.
It’s conference championship weekend.
There will be weeping and gnashing of teeth. And that’ll just be the fans who have to listen to Brad Nessler and Gary Danielson call the SEC Championship Game.
Just kidding.
Not really.
Ok, on with the schedule.
We don’t have nearly the college football menu that we normally do; we’ve gone from having dozens and dozens of games, sadly, down to just 10: the conference games that decide who wear the crowns. I would say who moves on to the College Football Playoff, and in some of these games, that will be the case, but I’m not convinced that some of these champions will make it.
For instance:
- In my personal opinion, I think Florida State’s schedule is a TON weaker than the schedule played by whomever the SEC champion is, be it Georgia OR Alabama. And I also think Texas has a much weaker schedule than the SEC champ, too – there’s no way the Big 12 is the conference the SEC is, with Oklahoma State losing to SOUTH ALABAMA and then making the Big 12 title game. But I give Texas a pass because of beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
- I think there is a scenario, a small one, that Georgia could lose the SEC title game and still get in. Calm down – I said it was a small one. I’ll explain in a minute.
- I think there’s a scenario, a small one, that Oregon could WIN the Pac-12 title game and get LEFT OUT. I think it’s small, as well, and I’ll explain that one in a minute, too, in our staff picks.
Here’s our schedule, followed by our staff picks.
Friday’s games (and all times are Central):
Conference USA Championship
New Mexico State (10-3) at No. 24 Liberty (12-0), at Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Va., 6 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Pac-12 Championship
No. 3 Washington (12-0) vs. No. 5 Oregon (11-1), Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev., 7 p.m., ABC
Saturday’s games (again, all times Central)
Big 12 Conference Championship
No. 7 Texas (11-1) vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State (9-3) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, 11 a.m., ABC
Mid-American Conference Championship
Miami, Ohio (10-2) vs. Toledo (11-1), Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan, 11 a.m., ESPN
Mountain West Conference Championship
Boise State (7-5) vs. UNLV (9-3), Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, 2 p.m., FOX
Southeastern Conference Championship
No. 1 Georgia (12-0) vs. No. 8 Alabama (11-1), at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga., 3 p.m., CBS
American Athletic Conference Championship
No. 22 Tulane (11-1) vs. SMU (10-2), Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La., 3 p.m., ABC
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Appalachian State (8-4) at Troy (10-2), Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, Ala., 3 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten Conference Championship
No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 16 Iowa (10-2), Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Ind., 7 p.m., FOX
Atlantic Coast Conference Championship
No. 4 Florida State (12-0) at No. 14 Louisville (10-2), Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C., 7 p.m., ABC
Staff picks
If you haven’t kept up this year, there are eight of us making these picks for TFB: that’d be my son, our videographer, Jacob Lucas; associate editor Clayton Fletcher; my wife and correspondent Jenna Lucas; husband and wife correspondents Mitchell Molandes and Shelby Thompson Molandes; photographer Alex Nabor; myself, and my name is Mitch Lucas, I’m the editor and publisher of this outfit.
And one more person, and she’s leading our standings, and that’s my youngest daughter Ashtyn Lucas. And she’s not really a staffer: she’s a college student. You read that right. She’s a college student who happens to know a lot about football, doesn’t pick a ton of upsets, and is pretty good at this.
In fact, she’s our leader with a 141-45 record. She went 13-2 a week ago. And this is our last week of college picks, technically – we’re going to pick the college bowl games and College Football Playoff, but we’re going to separate these picks from those. So there will be a regular season and conference championship game champion (I guess that would be Ms. Ashtyn – not sure she can be caught), and then a bowl game/ CFP champion.
At any rate, in second right now headed into our final week of the college standings are Alex and myself, tied at 137-49 each. Mitchell and Shelby are tied in third place at 135-51 each, followed by Jacob (132-53), then Jenna (128-58), and then Mr. Upset himself, the great Clayton Fletcher, at 121-65.
Now, on to the games.
New Mexico State at Liberty: The Conference USA title game has New Mexico State playing a true road game at Liberty, and… The pick has all of the panel at a unanimous 8-0 for unbeaten Liberty, guessing they’ll make it to 13-0.
Washington at Oregon: I honestly wish this game was another time – ANY other time – than Friday night, because I have a very important high school playoff game that I’m covering at the same exact time as this. And since I absolutely completely totally refuse to miss the high school playoff game, I’ll miss this one, regrettably.
I promised to explain my theory about Oregon winning this and missing, and here goes: if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game, Michigan wins the Big Ten title game, Florida State beats Louisville, and Texas beats Oklahoma State (especially convincingly), the Ducks are in trouble.
There’s no way the SEC champion gets left out. Alabama would have gone unbeaten in SEC play in the toughest conference in the country, only losing to Texas and would have beaten a two-time defending national champion who was completely, totally undefeated. ‘Bama is getting in in that scenario.
Texas is likely getting in in that scenario because they beat Alabama and would have worn out Oklahoma State.
We all know Michigan is getting in, period, but especially with a win.
Oregon’s hope would be if the committee takes seriously that Florida State’s not as strong without injured quarterback Jordan Travis (they’re not) and that they’re schedule is not as strong (it’s not; the ACC is weak – in spite of the fact that committee chair Boo Corrigan is the athletic director of North Carolina State).
The pick here: Myself and Jenna took Oregon; the rest of the panel took Washington, so a 6-2 split.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State: It’s not unthinkable that the Longhorns could lose this game. They haven’t seen Oklahoma State all season. I wouldn’t go bet the farm on it. The pick: Fletch took OSU, as did Mitchell, so another 6-2 split.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Toledo: Not a ton of knowledge about the MAC on the panel, I’m guessing, and the pick is yet another 6-2 split, with Alex and Shelby taking Miami, and the remainder of us taking Toledo.
Boise State vs. UNLV: The Mountain West comes down to the Champions of the Blue Turf vs. Guy Fieri U. The pick: Fletcher took Boise State, and the rest of us chose UNLV, a 7-1 split, leaning UNLV, which is also, by the way, the college of one Randall Cunningham, whom you may know (Eagles QB Randall Cunningham eludes Bruce Smith and throws 95 yard TD pass 12/02/1990).
Georgia vs. Alabama: I said earlier the SEC champion is getting in, no matter what, and I meant it, and here’s why. If Georgia wins, they’re 13-0, gunning for a third straight national title. No brainer, (stamped) in. Alabama wins, will have won all those consecutive games, ran the table, deservedly in (stamped), in.
Georgia loses, unless whipped, could still get in under the right scenario – if Alabama wins a razor-thin close one, Alabama goes for sure. What if Michigan loses, Florida State loses, Oregon wins, Texas wins? In that case, two SEC teams definitely go, Michigan probably still goes.
I’m telling you, look out. Chaos could reign supreme if what I said happens.
Now on the reverse, if Alabama loses, they’re definitely out. If Texas loses, they’re definitely out. If Oregon loses, they are definitely out. You feelin’ me?
The pick: wow, seven of us picked the Tide, with Shelby taking Georgia, so a 7-1 split.
Tulane vs. SMU: The pick here, right to the nitty-gritty, is Tulane across the board (8-0).
Appalachian State vs. Troy: The pick: Well, believe it or not, App State only has one believer, and that’d be Fletch. It’s a 7-1 split.
Michigan vs. Iowa: The odds are pretty solid that Iowa is in trouble here. And the panel’s vote reflects that (a unanimous 8-0 in favor of the Wolverines).
Florida State vs. Louisville: For 3 9/10 quarters against Florida, the Seminoles looked gosh-awful. Nobody outside of Tallahassee, Florida wants to see that in the CFP. I’m sorry. Louisville, America is counting on you.
